EXPERTS ADVISORY

Myanmar will have its first general election Nov. 8, ending nearly 50 years of military rule. There is widespread speculations on whether the voter registration will be accurate, if the National League for Democracy party wins enough seats or who will be the next president.

Experts at the University of Michigan can discuss the various issues leading to the elections and its outcome. They are:

John D. Ciorciari, assistant professor at the Ford School of Public Policy. His research focuses on Southeast Asian and examines foreign policy strategies, human rights and the reform of international economic institutions.

“There are lots of question marks in the run-up to the election. Will there be overt or subtle forms of intimidation at the polling stations? Will some of the areas with large ethnic minority populations around the periphery of the country be deemed (or declared) too insecure to hold the vote?” he said. “The NLD will be hard-pressed to win enough parliamentary seats to be able to appoint the next president—partly because the constitution gives the military one quarter of the seats in parliament and partly because it faces stiff competition in some regions from ethnic minority parties.

“More likely is that the NLD wins enough seats to have a major voice. That may not be a bad result, especially since Aung San Suu Kyi is legally barred from holding the presidency and there isn’t an obvious number 2. It would give Suu Kyi and her allies some leverage in negotiation over the presidency rather than forcing an immediate post-election showdown over which party will rule—the kind of crisis that would likely bring protesters into the streets and offer a possible pretext for reasserted military control.”

Contact: 734-615-6947, johncior@umich.edu

Dominic Nardi, a doctoral candidate in political science. His research areas include judicial politics in developing countries, particularly Myanmar, the Philippines and Indonesia.

“Whoever wins the majority of seats in Myanmar’s Parliament, careful thought will have to be given to training and equipping the new MPs for their roles as legislators,” he said. “Many of the candidates have valuable experience as businessmen, soldiers or political dissidents, but relatively few have experience in policymaking.

“Even if the USDP wins, it will have a large freshman class. Aside from the speakers and committee chairs, MPs will not have support staff to conduct research and provide policy advice.”

Contact: 959-200-6059, dnardi@umich.edu

Linda Lim, professor of strategy at the Ross School of Business. She is an expert on political economy of local and multinational business in Southeast Asia.

Contact: 734-763-0290, lylim@umich.edu