EXPERTS ADVISORY

China has ended its long-time one-child policy that kept Chinese couples from having multiple children. University of Michigan experts are available to discuss the impact:

Shuming Bao, director of the China Data Center and associate research scientist at the Institute for Social Research, has done extensive research on population and demographic change and challenge in China.

“The growth of the world population is slowing down, so is China. This is the trend worldwide,” he said. “In China, the speed of aging and declining population growth is much faster than most of other countries. The government has been struggling as the society is getting old much faster. The end of ‘one-child policy’ or ‘two-children policy’ may give the Chinese government more time to improve its fragile systems and infrastructure for the new era of aging population.”

Contact: 734-647-9610, sbao@umich.edu

Mary Gallagher, associate professor of political science and director of the Lieberthal-Rogel Center for Chinese Studies, is an expert on Chinese politics, law and society.

“While the policy has been loosening for some time, this is a historic decision in that it is nondiscriminatory—without regard to how many siblings the parents have or where people live, in the cities or countryside,” she said. “That’s a breakthrough in and of itself.

“Substantive impacts in the cities may be less than hoped if housing and education costs continue to rise. Many urban couples feel that they cannot afford a second child no matter how much they desire one. If family size does increase, it also will end the generation of ‘little emperors’—spoiled single children raised by a bevy of parents, grandparents and nannies.”

Contact: 734-764-3566, metg@umich.edu

Barbara Anderson, the Ronald Freedman Collegiate Professor of Sociology and Population Studies, analyzes the relationship between social change and demographic change. Her research focuses on China, the former Soviet Union and South Africa.

“The policy change is good for Chinese freedoms, but it is likely to have a minor impact on fertility in China,” she said. “Chinese parents invest greatly in their children and many will not want to have a second child.”

Contact: 734-763-3478, barba@umich.edu

John Knodel, professor emeritus of sociology and research professor emeritus at the Population Studies Center, has done research in developing countries in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand. While Thailand doesn’t have the same one-child policy restriction, some families decide to only have one child for economic reasons, he said.

“They have aspirations for their children and realize receiving a sufficient education is a prerequisite for getting good employment but also costly.” he said. “Many feel that they could not afford this if they had more than one child.”

Contact: 734-763-3714, jknodel@umich.edu

Wang Zheng, associate professor of history and women’s studies and associate scientist at the Institute for Research on Women and Gender. Wang fears that women will be pressed to have children against their will, just like many have had been forced to abort the baby they wanted.

“I am worried that gender inequality will be further reproduced as boys usually get more family and societal resources than girls,” she said.

Contact: 734-763-6635, wangzhen@umich.edu

Albert Hermalin, professor emeritus of sociology and research professor emeritus at the Population Studies Center, is an expert on studying older age mortality and health in Asia. He also has done extensive research on fertility, including a study on family size preferences in China. The policy change is likely to help China slow down its rate of population aging, he said.

“The one-child policy was not widely accepted,” he said, noting his study on Shanghai families. “Nevertheless, relatively few Shanghai couples in the early stages of family building would exceed two children, even without government restrictions.”

Contact: 734-763-3264, alberth@umich.edu