"More than 70 percent of today's baby boomers and seniors are white, and they grew up during a time when the nation's minority population was relatively small and consisted mainly of African Americans," said Frey, a researcher at the U-M Institute for Social Research and at the Brookings Institution. "By contrast, 40 percent of those under age 35 belong to minority groups. They have grown up during a period when racial mingling is the norm at school, work, social occasions and houses of worship."
The resulting differences in social and political attitudes will increase economic and cultural tensions in communities across the nation, Frey says, with some areas affected much sooner and more strongly than others.
Frey will present his projections March 19 at a meeting of Society 2030, a consortium bringing together U-M researchers and corporate leaders to prepare for society's changing age structure and other demographic trends.
Based on analyses of the latest U.S. Census data, Frey made the following predictions:
- America will become a majority-minority population well before 2043, the year in which that shift had been expected.
- For those under the age of 18, however, the tipping point will arrive soonest—by 2018.
- Fast-growing states of the West and South will have the youngest and most racially diverse populations, while the noncoastal Northeast, Midwest and parts of the old South will remain home to large numbers of white baby boomers and seniors.
"We are quickly becoming a more racially diverse society, beginning with our youth," Frey said. "Just as the post-war baby boom generation influenced all aspects of our culture as it moved through the lifecycle, today's younger minorities will help to shape all aspects of our national life as they move into middle age.
"It's vital for politicians, community and business leaders, and policymakers to pay attention to these changes. The decisions about how to incorporate this generation into the new American mainstream have important implications for our nation's future."
- Society 2030: http://society2030.isr.umich.edu
Established in 1949, the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research is the world's largest academic social science survey and research organization, and a world leader in developing and applying social science methodology, and in educating researchers and students from around the world. ISR conducts some of the most widely cited studies in the nation, including the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the American National Election Studies, the Monitoring the Future Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Health and Retirement Study, the Columbia County Longitudinal Study and the National Survey of Black Americans. ISR researchers also collaborate with social scientists in more than 60 nations on the World Values Surveys and other projects, and the institute has established formal ties with universities in Poland, China and South Africa. ISR is also home to the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, the world's largest digital social science data archive. For more information, visit the ISR website at www.isr.umich.edu.