ANN ARBOR—It’s the televised pep rally intended to unify a political party.

But this month’s Republican and Democratic conventions in Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively, could be critical in generating support for two presumptive candidates with low national approval ratings, according to University of Michigan experts from the Center of Political Studies.

Republicans kick off their four-day convention July 18 in Cleveland, while the Democrats gather in Philadelphia July 25-28.

U-M experts say the role of political conventions has changed in recent decades. This year’s conventions must galvanize the party base for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, said Vincent Hutchings, professor of political science.

“It’s not like it was several decades ago where the conventions helped to decide who the nominees would be so it’s not going to be as influential as it could be,” said Hutchings, an expert on elections and voting behavior.

“But it will still be important because now conventions mostly serve the role to help generate support and enthusiasm for the nominee.”

Bringing delegates, supporters and politicians to the same city, these scripted conventions have transformed from occasions on which important platform decisions were made to multiday infomercials for the presidential ticket. While some in the media are paying attention to platform fights, political expert Arthur Lupia says the purpose of these fights is to unify activists from different wings of a party.

But the policy relevance of these battles is increasingly limited. Recent presidential candidates have not been bound by the outcomes of platform battles.

“They tend to emphasize their own priorities during the campaign and ignore parts of the platform with which they or their potential supporters disagree,” said Lupia, the Hal R. Varian Collegiate Professor of Political Science and CPS research professor.

Those priorities include changing the narrative imposed by their opponent, which contributes to the historically high unfavorable ratings, said Josh Pasek, an assistant professor of communication studies.

“The conventions this year are going to be a particularly important moment for changing the message around both candidates,” he said. “With the rise of social media and rapid-response campaigning, however, the two parties may find it harder to fully control the messaging environment.”

For Democrats, once the platform disagreements are resolved, the convention “will become political theater that involves an organized script that describes who Hillary Clinton is and her vision for America,” said political expert Michael Traugott.

And now that former presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders has endorsed Clinton, she must include him on the campaign trail to lure his supporters, Lupia said.

On the Republican side, however, there is still too much uncertainty about support for Trump.

“The message coming out of the convention is likely to be less well orchestrated and unified, especially given the number of party leaders who are refusing to attend,” said Traugott, professor emeritus of communication studies and CPS senior research scientist.

Uncertainty can be seen on the Cleveland streets in the form of protests. Michael Heaney, an assistant professor of organizational studies and political science, is an expert on protest, social movements, and political parties. He is observing protesters while in Cleveland, and plans to monitor them in Philadelphia.

“It appears unlikely that the protests in Cleveland this week will be more disruptive than has become typical of conventions in recent years,” Heaney said. “Counter-Republican protests in 2004 and 2008 were more elaborately planned than appears to be the case this year, though this year’s protests will likely exceed the size of the protests at the 2012 Republican convention, which was held in Tampa. ”

After the Republican convention, Trump likely will not stay out of the headlines, U-M experts say. He might have an attention-grabbing strategy during the Democratic convention.

“While there has been a tradition for partisans to be somewhat quiet during the other party’s convention, this is exactly the type of long-standing political practice that Trump loves to destroy,” Lupia said.

More information:

• Vincent Hutchings
• Arthur Lupia
• Josh Pasek
• Michael Traugott
• Michael Heaney