ANN ARBOR—
When it comes to predicting repeat incidents of severe domestic violence, the intuition of victims may be as important as checklists derived from research, say researchers at Wayne State University and the University of Michigan.
“Some argue that survivors’ assessments are the most accurate because they know their abusers better than anyone else does,” says Arlene N. Weisz, WSU assistant professor of social work. “Survivors might be aware of important factors that are difficult to measure and might become especially attuned to their partners’ cycles of violence over time.
“Others, however, argue that battered women may not make accurate predictions of violence because they may suffer so much psychological trauma that their awareness of the dangers they face may be lessened.”
In a recent study of 177 female victims of severe domestic abuse, Weisz and U-M social work associate professors Richard M. Tolman and Daniel G. Saunders found that nearly all survivors who predicted no subsequent violence and a majority of those who strongly predicted more violence were correct when questioned four months later in follow-up interviews.
The researchers define severe violence as likely to result in injury or death; for example, death threats; actual or threatened use of a knife, gun or other weapon; kicking, biting or hitting with fists; actual or attempted hitting with object; forced sex; choking or strangling; and beating up.
According to the study, established risk factors supported by statistical research may predict repeat abuse, but survivors’ predictions significantly improve the accuracy of the assessment—at least in the short term.
“Our results suggest that when survivors predict danger, it must be taken seriously, even when other markers fail to identify a risk,” Tolman says. “This highlights the importance of incorporating ongoing contact with survivors into settings that need to respond to the risk of batterers’ re-offenses.”
The researchers say that improving the ability to predict severe violence by batterers has several practical implications. For example, it could further assist battered women and counselors in making realistic safety plans; aid in selecting the amounts and types of treatment for batterers; and help judges and prosecutors decide which abusers require closer supervision.
“Overall, our study suggests that in attempting to assess risk of repeat severe violence, it is better to use more than one source of data about risk factors,” Saunders says. “Survivors’ predictions appear important to include in the assessment.”
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